Aaaarrrrrgggghhhh! Enough Already!
Who are these people and why are they saying the things they say? Werblog: Who will buy Tivo for scrap? To paraphrase, "Who will read this guy's [drop the "s"]?
Werbach says: "OK, I have to admit it. Tivo's goose is cooked.... Perhaps even more significant, though, is Tivo's intellectual property. I don't know exactly what patents Tivo holds, but it has a significant portfolio of assets...."
So, I have to point out that I have no idea whether Tivo's longterm future is happy or not. But I do know that others are making bold pronouncements of doom without even a meaningful survey of the current situation. After all, if you don't know what ACTUAL assets a company holds, how can you possibly MAKE UP a value for the intangible assets you *think* they have?
It seems that Tivo's most significant asset is it subscriber base, which apparently is growing at a rate of 100,000 a month, maybe? Thus, Tivo is projecting finishing 2004 with 3 (little finger to mouth) Million subscribers! Direct (non-partner) subscriptions appear to be growing at more than 30,000 a month--at an increasing rate for the past 6 months or more.
I think Tivo's ultimate strategy is to do what the cable companies have NEVER been able to do--become a value-added content provider (and, in a more important sense, middleware provider). Put another way, Tivo wants to do to the cable companies what the cable companies did to the networks. (Let me point out that cable didn't put the networks out of business, either--so history argues against the cable companies putting Tivo out of business too.)
Tivo's model ultimately wipes out the profit from PVR/DVR hardware, so the business becomes solely a service and software subcription model. Tivo will be able to deliver an aggregated subscriber base (culled, if you will) from across mulitple cable systems. And these are the PREMIUM target customers of advertisers, etc. After all, direct Tivo subscribers already pay for their cable/satellite, and still pay a follow-on Tivo subscription precisely FOR Tivo's differentiated services (first, MRV/HMO, then online scheduling, next T2G, and now HME).
What's even funnier is that Tivo developed its product in partnership with cable, all the while getting ready to undercut cable's actual captive market for settop boxes and video on demand, etc. I mean, a Tivo is about to become a DVD player with needing a DVD. Instead, content will be delivered to it (and through it to other devices via T2G) ON DEMAND--regardless of what cable company you use. And when CableCard kicks in, people will no longer have equipment tied to their cable provider...so all Tivo really needs to do is hang on long enough for that. All I know, is that the Netflix deal...or any video on demand service just became completely doable and foreseeable--TODAY--with HME.
So when I read a flip writeup like Werbach's--that makes pronouncements of imminent doom WITHOUT at least a passing attempt at dispelling the possible success of Tivo's current path...well, I get a little upset.
Now, Fool, what do you suppose is the correlation between Tivo ownership and Netflix subscription?!?!